The future we’re building — and boring | Elon Musk

Translator: Ahmed Gamal Auditor: Ayman Mahmoud Chris Anderson: Elon, welcome back to TED. Great to be here. Elon Musk: Thanks for hosting me. So, in about the next half hour, We'll spend some time In exploring your vision of what an exciting future might look like, That, I think, would make the first question a little bit comical Why are you digging? Yes. I ask myself this question a lot. We're trying to dig a hole under Los Angeles. With the aim of launching the beginning Why we hope it's a 3D tunnel network To relieve congestion. Currently, one of the most frustrating things is the traffic. It affects people all over the world. You waste a lot of your life. This is horrible. Especially in Los Angeles. (Laughter) I think you brought it with you The first visualization will be presented on that. Can I display it? Yes, of course, this is the first time. Just to make it clear what we're talking about. There are a few basic things that are important To create a 3D tunnel network. First, you must be able On integrating the entrance and exit of the tunnel Seamlessly with the architecture of the city.

By elevator, What looks like a platform on an elevator You will be able to combine inlet and outlet with the tunnel network With only two car parks. Then the car is placed on a platform. There is no maximum speed; That's why we're designing this to operate at speeds of 200 kilometers per hour. How many? 200 kilometers per hour, or about 130 miles per hour. In other words, you will be able to go from Westwood to Los Angeles Airport, for example In 6 minutes .. 5 to 6 minutes. (clap) So maybe at the beginning It will resemble a road with toll points. Yes. Which I think will take some of the congestion off On the surface roads as well. I don't know if you noticed that in the video, But there is no limit to the number of tunnel levels that can be accessed.

You can go further than you can go up. The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings. So you can reduce any random level of urban congestion Using a network of tunnels. This is a very important point. One of the main disadvantages of tunnels is that if you add a layer of tunnels Just to reduce the congestion, the void will be exhausted, And you're going back to where you started, to crowded again. But you can access any number of tunnels, And any number of levels. But people usually find drilling too expensive; That should end this idea. Yes. Well, they are right. To give you an example, the stretch of the Los Angeles Tunnels, Which he thought was 2.5 miles. It was built at a cost of $ 2 billion.

That's about a billion dollars a mile, for the construction of the Los Angeles subway line. And this is not the most useful tunnel line in the world. So yeah, tunneling is usually very difficult. I think we should get at least ten Of the cost of digging a mile. How can you achieve this? In fact, if you only do two things; You can reduce the cost to approximately one-tenth And I think you can move past that. The first thing that needs to be done is to reduce the tunnel diameter For half or less. Tunnel necessary for a one-lane road, according to laws, It should be 26 feet in diameter and maybe 28 feet in diameter; To absorb accidents and emergency vehicles, And to allow adequate ventilation of vehicles powered by combustion engines.

But if you reduce this diameter to the diameter we are seeking, And it's 12 feet, which is more than enough to accommodate an electric platform. Then you'll cut the diameter in half, And the cross-sectional area of ​​the sector to a fourth, The cost of drilling is related to the cross-sectional area; Which means reducing the cost to roughly a fifth so far. In addition, the tunnel boring machines currently run half the time and then stop. You spend the rest of the time adding reinforcements To the tunnel wall. So if you design the machine To continuously drill and reinforce; This will cut the cost in half. Add it to the above and you will get to the eighth. The machines will also be far from reaching their maximum capacity and thermal limits. So you can greatly increase the machine's power. I think you can cut the cost by at least half and maybe a quarter or a fifth. In addition to the above. So I think there are a number of steps that are straightforward enough To reach a value less than one-tenth Of the cost of digging a mile, Our goal now is …

We have a pet snail named Gary, It's Gary the Snail from South Park. Sorry, I mean "SpongeBob SquarePants". (Laughter) Gary can … Currently it can travel 14 times faster From a tunnel boring machine. (Laughter) You want to defeat Gary. We want to defeat Gary. (Laughter) He is an impatient boy, Which would make that a victory. Victory is the defeat of the snail. But many who imagine and dream about future cities, They think the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. To point above the ground. Why isn't that a better solution? You will save all tunneling costs. Right, I prefer flying things. Obviously, I make rockets. So I like things that fly. This is not a self-prejudice against flying things, But there is a challenge for flying cars And it is going to be very troublesome, And that the wind loads generated will be very high. Let's just say something is flying over your head. That the presence of a group of cars flying over the place, That would not be a reassuring stance. (Laughter) You wouldn't say to yourself "Okay, I feel better about this today." You will even wonder, "Have they maintained the wheel covers," Or will it fly off my head? " things like that.

So you have that vision For the cities of the future where these dense three-dimensional networks of tunnels reside underneath. Does this have anything to do with the hyperloop? Can you use these tunnels to realize the idea of ​​the hyperloop? Which I announced a few years ago. Well, we were kind of having fun On the topic of hyperloop for a while.

We built an experimental hyperloop track near the company "SpaceX"; For a student competition only; To encourage innovative ideas in the field of transportation. In fact, it ended up being the largest vacuum chamber in the world After the Large Hadron Collider according to size. It was a lot of fun to do, but it was more like a hobby. Then we thought we might … We built a small propeller car to pay student capsules, We will try to determine the speed at which we can make the driving car reach When you pay nothing. So we are feeling cautiously optimistic We will be able to make it faster than the fastest "bullet train" in the world Even within a range of 0.8 miles. Good brakes. Yes, it is. Either it will break into small pieces or travel too fast. But you can imagine a hyperloop inside a tunnel He walks very long distances. exactly. Looking at the tunneling technique, Turns out to make a tunnel, You should.. In order to isolate it against the water table, You will usually have to design the tunnel wall to hold it About 5 or 6 times the atmospheric pressure.

Reaching a vacuum means one air pressure, Or close to the void. In fact, it turns out automatically, If you create a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, It will automatically be able to resist vacuum. Okay. So yeah. Then you can really visualize How long is the tunnel that Elon needs to run the hyperloop? I think there is no maximum length. You can dig as much as you want. I think if you want to do something Like Hyperloop from Washington to New York, You will likely prefer the entire path to be underground.

Because it is a high density area. You will pass under a lot of buildings and houses, And if you go deep enough, You will not be able to monitor the tunnel. Sometimes, people think, that would be so annoying A tunnel is being dug underneath their homes. If this tunnel is dug At a depth more than 3 or 4 times the diameter of the tunnel beneath your house, You won't be able to spot it while digging at all. In fact, if you can spot the tunnel while it's digging, Whatever device you are using, You can get a lot of money in return from the Israeli army, Who is trying to monitor the "Hamas" tunnels, And from the US Customs and Border Protection agency, which is trying to monitor drug smuggling tunnels.

So the reality is Earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations. As soon as the depth of the tunnel is below a certain level; It becomes unattainable. Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic device, You might be able to spot it. I set up a new company to do this It is called a drilling company. Very good, very funny. (Laughter) What's so funny about that? (Laughter) How long does this take of your time? Probably.. 2 or 3 percent. I bought a hobby. This is what Elon Musk's hobbies look like. (Laughter) It really is, for example. It is mainly the interns and the people who work on it part-time. We bought some used machines. It's kind of fun, but he's making good progress. So there's a bigger part of your time She spends working on cars and electric transportation through Tesla.

Is one of the motives behind the tunnels project? It is your realization that, in fact, In a world where cars are electric and self-driving, It might lead to more cars on the roads In what hour compared to the current time? Yeah, exactly. Many people think that when cars are self-driving, They will be faster and this will reduce traffic congestion To some degree, this is true. But once shared self-driving is available, and moving by car is much cheaper, And you can move from one point to another, The car transportation cost will be better than the bus transportation cost. It will cost less than a bus ticket. Therefore, driving rates will be much higher in the presence of shared autonomous driving.

In fact, the traffic will only get worse. You founded Tesla to convince the world That electric energy is the future of cars, A few years ago, people were making fun of you. Now, not much. Okay. (Laughter) I do not know. I do not know. But isn't it true that almost all car manufacturers They have announced serious plans to rely on electricity In the near and medium future. Yes. Yes. I think all car manufacturers have an electric vehicle program.

They differ in how serious they are. Some of them are very serious about switching completely to electricity. Some of them are just fun. And some are still surprisingly supportive of fuel cells. But I think it won't last long. But isn't it logical, Elon? Simply announce your victory and say "We did it." You let the world go to the electricity, and you go to focus on other things? Okay. I intend to stay at Tesla for the future as far as I can imagine. And there are many exciting things that we will release. It is clear that the “Model 3” will be launched soon. We'll unveil the Tesla Semi truck. Well, we'll mention that. The 'Model 3' is supposed to be launched around July.

Yes, it looks very appropriate for us to start production in July. Fabulous. One of the things that people are excited about It has an automatic driving mode in it. And you posted this video a while ago Explains what that technology will look like. Yes. It is clear that there is an automatic drive mode in the "Model S" now. What do we see here? This is done using cameras and GPS only There are no lidar or radar systems used here. This can only be done using a "passive optical network", which is what humans mainly use. The entire path is explored By using "passive optical network" or cameras, And as soon as you process the cameras' data Or vision, Automated driving becomes possible. If you can't process vision, then it won't be possible. So our focus is so much on creating a visual neural network Be very effective for road conditions. Lidar is being used by many others. All you need is cameras and radar. You can undoubtedly be a superhero using only cameras.

You can possibly be ten times better than humans. With cameras only. Cars currently sold have 8 cameras. It can't do what is shown here yet. When will you be able to? I think we are still on the right track to have it cross-country From Los Angeles to New York at the end of the year, fully automated driving. Okay, so you say that at the end of the year, Someone will sit in a Tesla car without even touching the steering wheel, Then it clicks on New York and then it starts. Yes. He will never need to touch the steering wheel … by the end of 2017. Yes. Basically, in November or December of this year, We should be able to block out from a California parking To a parking lot in New York, Without any directions at any point throughout the journey. (clap) just awesome. But part of that became possible; Because you already have a fleet of Tesla cars roaming all of those roads. It collects an enormous amount of data on the local road system. Yeah, but it may sound exciting Is that I am really very confident that she can go down this path, Even if you use variable paths along this path.

It's very easy … If you can be very good on a certain path that is another matter. But it should be able to run very efficiently. Especially when you get on the highway, To go anywhere on the highway network In a particular country. So that's not limited to the Los Angeles Road to New York We can change it from Seattle to Florida, On this day, at a certain time. For example, you were going from Los Angeles to New York.

And now she goes from Los Angeles to Toronto. If we leave the laws aside for some time, From a technical point of view only, The time someone will be able to purchase one of your cars, And he literally puts off the wheel and goes to sleep Then he wakes up to find that he has arrived. When can this be done safely? I think that will happen in two years. The real challenge is not being able to make it work 99.9 percent of the time. Because if a car collision happened once in a thousand times, You will still be anxious to sleep often. Of course, you shouldn't.

(Laughter) It will never be perfect. There is no perfect system, But if we say that it is … A vehicle collision is highly unlikely In a hundred lives, or a thousand lives, People would say, "Well, cool, if I could live a thousand lives; Mostly I will not have an accident. This is usually okay. " you, sleep. I guess your biggest concern is that people might Too early they think it's safe, And that a terrible accident might happen that disrupts things. Well, I think the autonomous driving system is likely to mitigate the collision at least. Except in rare circumstances. One thing we should know about vehicle safety Is that this is a possibility. There is a possibility every time someone drives a car To have a collision due to his fault. It is never zero. The primary approach to adopting autonomous driving is Knowing how much autonomous leadership should outpace a person Before you depend on it.

But once safe hands-free driving is literally achieved, The potential for industry disruption appears enormous; Because at that time, as I said, people will be able to buy a car, She takes you to work, then lets her go To work on services like Uber for other people, Make you money, It may cover the purchase price of the car. So you can have a car almost for free. Is this really out of the question? Yes, it will undoubtedly happen. There will be a self-driving fleet to be shared Where you buy your car You can choose to use the car on your own. Or choose to be used only by your friends and family, Or only by other drivers with a 5-star rating, You can share it sometimes but not at other times. This is what will happen 100%. It is only a matter of time.

just awesome. So, you mentioned the pickup truck I think you plan to announce it in September. But I wonder if there is anything you can show us today? I'll show you a teaser shot of the truck. (Laughter) She is alive. Okay. This is definitely a case in which to be careful From the disclosure of the autonomous driving features. Yes. (Laughter) We can't see much; But it doesn't look like a friendly little neighborhood truck. Sounds somewhat hostile. What kind of semi trucks are they? This is a long-range, heavy-duty semi-truck. So it has the highest load capacity In addition to a long walk. They are primarily intended to relieve heavy loads. This is something that people currently think is not possible. They think the truck doesn't have enough power or range, And via a Tesla Semi truck, We want to show them this is wrong, the electric van In fact, it can generate more torque than any other diesel semi-truck. If I hold a tug-of-war competition, The Tesla Semi will tow the diesel truck up a slope. (Laughter) (clap) This is so cool. In the short term, this is not self-driving.

They will be trucks that truck drivers will drive. Yeah, which would be fun about it The presence of a flat curve between the torque and the number of revolutions per minute, in the presence of an electric motor, While in the presence of a diesel engine or any vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine You'll get a hill-shaped curve. So it will be a very agile truck. You can drive it like a sports car. There is no transmission. Like a lonely speed. There's going to be a great movie about that somewhere. I don't know what it is or if it will end well, But it is an amazing movie.

(Laughter) Her test drive was very strange. When I was driving a prototype of the first truck. That was really weird, because you are driving With great ingenuity, even though you are in a huge truck. Wait, have you ever driven a model of it? Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot, And that was crazy. Fabulous. This is not a fiction. I was driving that big truck, And I'm doing crazy maneuvers.

that's cool. Okay, so let's move on from a very aggressive photo To a somewhat less offensive image. This is just a cute house from Desperate Housewives or something. What is going on here? Well that turns out to be a picture of the future Which I think will develop into. There is an electric car in the driveway. If you look between the electric car and the house; There are 3 wall batteries hanging on the side of the house. Then there is the roof of the house, which is a solar roof That is, it is a real roof made of solar panels. Okay. This is a picture of a real house, in fact, it is a real fake house. This is a real fake house. (Laughter) So, these roof panels, Some of them have actually solar energy, the ability to … Yeah, glass solar panels You can adjust its style and color Up to a very subtle level, There are also very small holes in the glass, So that if you look at the ceiling from street level Or close to street level; All panels look the same Whether there is a solar cell under it or not.

So you see a uniform color When looking from ground level. If you look at him from a helicopter, You can really look through it and see Some solar panels have a solar cell underneath and some are not. You wouldn't know that from street level. Put them in panels exposed to the most sunlight, Which makes panels affordable, right? You won't be much more expensive than just a regular ceiling.

Yes. We are sure that the cost of the roof In addition to the cost of electricity. Solar panel roof will be less expensive than normal roof Plus the cost of electricity. In other words, That would be easy from an economic point of view. We think it would look great, It will endure .. We thought to make the guarantee endless, But people thought That may sound like we are talking nonsense. But actually, this is toughened glass. After the house collapses, There is nothing left, The glass panels will still be intact. (clap) I mean, that's cool. You're going to release this in two weeks, I think. With four different types of roofs. Yes, we'll start with two variants, primarily, The other two will be released early next year. What is the size of your ambition about it? How many homes do you think would become covered with this type of roof? I think in the end, Almost all homes will have solar roofs.

What needs to be taken into account is the time scale That would be mostly around 40 or 50 years old. On average, the roof is replaced every 20-25 years. But you don't start replacing all of your ceilings right away. But at the end of the day, if we can speed things up To almost 15 years from now; It would be uncommon to have a roof that did not have solar cells. Is there something people do not understand about this Because of the change in cost, and the solar finances, Most homes already have enough light on their roofs To cover almost all of their energy needs. If you manage to capture energy; It will cover nearly all of their energy needs. You may leave the power grid. It depends on where you are, And on the size of the house in relation to the ceiling area, But it is okay to say Most homes in the United States have adequate roof space To provide all the energy needs of the home.

So, the decisive factor in an economy Cars, semi-trucks, and those homes The price of lithium-ion batteries is falling, Which is what you bet on at Tesla. In many ways, this is often your core strength. And you have decided That you are to preserve that power; You have to build the largest factory in the world To double the global production of lithium-ion batteries, Through this boy.

What is that? For this is the "Gigafactory" plant, What the "Gigafactory" plant has arrived at. At the end, you'll be able to see What looks like a diamond And when complete, it will look like a giant plaster. Or this is the idea behind it, And he's aligned with true north. This is one of the smallest details. He will be able to produce, upon his completion, About 100 gigawatt hours of batteries per year 100 GWh. Maybe more, but yeah. And they are already in production now. – They are actually being produced. – You just published this video. Was it speeded up? This is the lazy version. (Laughter) How fast is it actually? When it is running at its maximum speed; You can't see cells without blinking. Just a foggy thing. (Laughter) One of your main ideas for what will make the future exciting It's a future where we don't feel guilty about energy.

Help us visualize this. How many "gigafactory" plants are needed to get there? About a hundred, roughly. Not 10, not 1000. So it's probably 100. I see it amazing That you can imagine what it takes To wean the world away from the massive use of fossil fuels. You build one, Its cost is $ 5 billion The next one will probably cost 5 to 10 billion dollars. It's great that you can visualize this project. At Tesla, you are planning to announce two other manufacturers this year.

I think we will announce sites Between two to four manufacturers of "Gigafactory" later this year. Yes, usually four. Fabulous. (clap) Aren't there more teasers for us about that? For example, where? which continent? You can answer no. We must go to the global market. Okay. (Laughter) that's cool. I think we should talk about … In fact, this is important. And so I'm going to ask you one question about politics, just one. I'm kind of tired of politics, but I'd like to ask you this. You gave someone a piece of advice .. who is he? He said he doesn't believe in climate change, And there are a lot of people who think you shouldn't have done that.

They'd like you to get away from it. What do you say to them? Well firstly, I am a member of only two advisory boards. The goal is to walk around the room And inquire about people's opinions about some things. So a meeting takes place roughly every month or two. This is my total contribution. But I think there are also people in the meetings They are calling to do something about climate change, Or about social issues. I made use of the meetings I attended so far In favor of defending migration and climate change. (clap) If I don't, This was not on the agenda before. Perhaps nothing will happen, but at least I have said what needs to be said. Okay. (clap) Let's talk about CibesX and Mars. The last time you were here, She talked about something that seemed like an incredibly ambitious dream It is developing reusable missiles. And you went and did it. Finally, it took a long time. Tell us about this. What do we see here? This is one of our missile boosters It returns from a very high altitude and rapidly in space. He has just fired the upper stage of the missile Very quickly.

I think his speed was probably about 7 times the speed of sound. Push the upper stage. (clap) This has been speeded up .. This was the slow-motion version. (Laughter) I thought it was the express version. But this is cool, Many of these fail Before you finally know how to do it, But now you've done it how many times, 5 or 6 times? I think we've come 8 or 9 times. And for the first time, You actually managed to fire one of the rockets that landed. Yeah, the rocket booster has landed, Then we set it to fly again, and then we launched it again, So this is the first time a space booster has made a second flight The two flights were connected. It is very important to realize that reuse is non-contact If only it was fast and complete. Like a plane or a car, The reuse is fast and complete.

You are not sending your plane to "Boeing" between flights. Right. This allowed you to dream about a very ambitious idea And it's sending many, many people to Mars In 10 to 20 years I guess. Yes. And you designed a colossal missile to do that. Help us realize the scale of this thing. Well, visually, you can see a person. Yeah, and this is the vehicle. (Laughter) If that was a skyscraper, It would be roughly, is that true, a 40-story skyscraper? Maybe a little more, yeah In fact, his momentum is … This design has about 4 times the thrust of the "Saturn 5" rocket. Four times the thrust of the largest missile ever created by mankind. Yes. Yes. – As usual. – Yes. (Laughter) Compared to the 747s, the 747 has a thrust of nearly a quarter of a million pounds. That is, for every 10 million pounds of thrust There are 40 747 aircraft.

That is, it would equal thrust to 120 747s with all their engines running. Even with a machine designed to escape from gravity, I think you told me last time That this thing can carry a fully loaded 747, People, goods, everything Into space orbit. exactly. It can carry a fully loaded 747 at maximum fuel capacity, The maximum number of passengers and the maximum cargo load for a 747 aircraft.

He can carry it as though it were goods. So, based on this, You recently introduced an interplanetary transport system, Which is visualized this way. When do you imagine this scene, after 30 years? 20 years? For people to get into this missile. I hope in 8-10 years. Hopefully, that is our goal. Our self-ambitions are exaggerated, but I think … (Laughter) Okay. Although this vehicle looks very bulky And bulky compared to other missiles; But I think the future spacecraft This will make it look like a rowing boat. Future spaceships are going to be really massive. Why, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars It has a million people during your life, I guess you said you'd love to do this? I think it's important that we have it An inspiring and engaging future. I think there must be reasons To wake up in the morning wishing to live. Meaning, did you want to live? What is the idea? What inspires you? What do you like about the future? And if we weren't there, If the future does not include our interstellar existence And to become a multi-planet race, Then I find it very frustrating Shouldn't that be the future we have.

(clap) People want it to be just an option, Because there are a lot of bad things happening on the planet right now From climate to poverty, you know, choose from many, And that sounds like a distraction. You shouldn't think about this. Rather, it must solve what is here and now. And to be fair, you really did play a good role in doing so Through your work in the renewable energy field. But why not just do that? I think there is … I look into the future in terms of possibilities. Seems like a bifurcation of possibilities.

And there are actions we can take that affect these possibilities Or hasten something happening or delay something else. I might add something new to the stream of possibilities. Sustainable energy is going to happen. If there was no Tesla, if there was never Tesla, It would have happened out of necessity. It is repeated talk. If you don't have sustainable energy, then you have unsustainable energy. In the end, you'll run out of you, The laws of economics will lead civilization Towards sustainable energy, Necessarily. The core value of a company like Tesla Is the extent to which it accelerated the emergence of sustainable energy, Compared to what would have happened otherwise. So when I think, What is the primary benefit of a company like Tesla, I will say, I hope, If you precipitate it by a decade, maybe more than a decade, That would be a very good thing to happen. This is what I consider The primary hoped-for benefit for Tesla.

As for becoming a multi-planet race and a space-traveling civilization. This is not inevitable. It is very important to realize that this is not inevitable. I think the future of sustainable energy is very much inevitable. But becoming a space-traveling civilization is definitely not inevitable. If you look at the progress in space, In 1969, we were able to send a person to the moon. 1969 Then we had the space shuttle. The shuttle can only take people into low Earth orbit. Then the space shuttle stopped, The United States can no longer send anyone into space orbit. This is the trend. The trend is like it's down to nothing. People get it wrong when they think Technology is evolving automatically. It does not automatically develop. It does not develop unless a lot of people work hard to make it better. In fact, I think it will back off on its own. When you look at great civilizations like ancient Egypt, They could build the pyramids, Then they forgot how to do it.

And the Romans after that, they built amazing aqueducts. Then they forgot how to do it. Elon, it seems to me when I listen to you And look at the different things you've done That you have a unique urge multiplier about everything I find it interesting. The first is the desire to work for the long-term interest of humankind. The other is the desire to do something exciting. And you seem to feel that you need both to push each other.

By Tesla, you want to achieve sustainable energy, And so you create these exciting and cool cars to do that. Solar energy, to reach it, So these beautiful ceilings are made. We haven't even talked about your latest thing, We don't have time for that, But you want to protect humanity from the evil artificial intelligence, And so you'll create a great brain-robotic interface. To provide us with an infinite memory and the possibility of telepathy, etc.

And about Mars, it looks like what you're trying to say is: Yes, we want to save humanity And to have a Plan B, But we also want to inspire humanity, This is one way of inspiration. I believe I value beauty and inspiration They are not underestimated, No doubt. But I want to be clear. I am not trying to be anyone's lifesaver. This is not what .. I'm just trying to think about the future Without being sad. (clap) a beautiful saying. I think everyone here agrees However, it is not .. None of this will definitely happen. And the fact that you are dreaming about these things on your mind, You dream about things that no one else dares to dream, Or there is no other person who can dream The same level of complexity as you dream about.

The fact that you do, Elon, is a wonderful thing. Thank you for helping all of us make bigger dreams. But you'd alert me if it started getting really crazy, right? (Laughter) Thanks, Elon Musk, that was so cool. That was really cool. (clap).

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