Tesla Solar Roof: Cost Estimate with Powerwall 2 and Electricity Costs

Elon Musk is claiming that
the new Tesla solar room is going to look better
than a normal roof. That's his words, not mine. It'll generate electricity, no doubt, last longer, that's to be seen, and have better installation
and an installed cost that is less than a normal roof plus the cost of electricity. This is a big claim for Tesla, and I figured we should
dig into some data, come up with what we
think the cost may be, or where the range would be
for it to actually make sense for most people. Then try to figure out
what solar's like for you, and whether or not it makes sense at all. Consumer reports recently
put out some information about what an average roof would cost, and they did a lot of digging, so thank you to them, and
thank you for all of us that are joining me. We're gonna figure this out because they found that a
clay room is about $16,000, an asphalt roof like I have is $20,000, and then we have a slate
roof, which is about $45,000, the more expensive option.

On my roof here, this
is an asphalt tile roof, and it's extremely common
in Arizona, California and Texas, tons of places
where solar is also popular. They estimate this would be
about $20,000 to replace. That's for a 3,000 square foot house, not a 1,000 square foot house like I have. Prices are expensive here, what can I say, but the point being that, that
is a decent chunk of money. If you add in the cost of electricity, the cost of a solar room
could still be quite high, and end up making a lot
of sense financially over the 30 year term. Now these roofs typically
only come with about a 20 year life span, so all that factored in, I would say that a Tesla roof is going to make a lot of
sense for a lot of people, assuming you can afford
it, and get financing, all those kind of things.

There's a lot to consider, so let's dive into those things next. When we considered those as
our choices for our roof cost, we're going to look at
what the tiles may cost that are similar. Now they announced four
different kinds of tiles, the smooth glass tile,
the textured glass tile, the Tuscan glass tile, and then the slate. Forget the smooth glass tile, because there really is no comparison for a roof of a residential home anyways. Now taking that into consideration, and looking at the cost of solar, now the average cost of solar
here in Southern California or in San Diego, anyways is about $15,000. That's after the federal incentive, the tax credit of 30% which is huge. That is there for you, which is gonna save you a lot of money, and there's a big
question of whether or not the solar roof will fall under this same category of product, because it's specifically
for the photovoltaic panels.

This being some hybrid of
a roof plus the panels, there's been no installations
yet, so we don't really know. Now I'm sure Elon and those
guys will be fighting for that, lobbying whoever's in the
White House to do that. Here in San Diego, it is
sunny about 70% of the time, and we get some clear days,
and some not so clear days, but it's one of the sunniest
places in the country. You'd think it makes a
lot of sense to get solar, but when you consider that this
is a Mediterranean climate. It's one of those more mild type climates, where it's not too hot, it's not too cold, you really don't spend
a ton of money on energy for your house.

You don't need a lot
of heat in the winter, you don't need AC really
much in the summer, depending on where you live, and a lot of place don't
even have AC at all. When you consider that,
solar in San Diego, or in Southern California
is more of a question mark. In other places like
Phoenix, or Las Vegas, where it's super sunny,
and it's super hot, it makes all the sense in the world. To confuse things even
more, there is this issue about what to do with
the surplus of energy. We have something here in California, known as net energy metering, and it's pretty common in
places that are big with solar. New York state is another one as well. What that basically is,
is if you're at home, or if you're generating more electricity, during let's say a hot
day, when you're at work, and the sun is just beating down, and you're just putting
out a ton of electricity, the local utility will buy that from you, and then sell it back
to you at that same rate later on when you need it, say in the winter when it's cloudy, or at night, or anything like that.

In the end you can think of it as basically flattening your bill out. For the purposes of our analysis, we're gonna assume that
either you have that option for available to to you,
or you have something like the Tesla PowerWall. Now the Tesla Powerwall
comes in at $6,500, and is a way to essentially offset, I mean in theory with one
or maybe two you could potentially go off the grid completely. I think that's a lot of people's dream, but it's yet to be seen. Let's just assume though,
that for this to work, the solar that you get from the solar roof would be a net zero effect. You'd have zero bills for electricity that includes potentially
fueling up your Tesla car if you have one or multiple of those. Now Tesla says that the solar roof will last for about 30 years, and that's a little bit longer
than most solar warranties. Most solar warranties, in
fact if you look for quotes and things like that,
it'll be right around 25, sometimes 20 years. They're saying that 30
years is the life span, in that, that's within the warranty.

With that, you should be
good with any degradation, or any loss of performance, or any problems of like an inverter, or any other piece of the
puzzle that goes bust. If we take the annual
average electric bill of $2,000 times 30 years, you're looking at $60,000
of kind of a buffer of cost up front that
you can actually pad into what this new solar roof product may be. Taking a look here, just starting with the overall roof costs, I wanted to make this little bar chart, so you can get a sense of
how much more expensive the slate roof is compared to
the asphalt, or the clay roof. It's quite a bit more expensive, so keep that in mind as we go
through this analysis here. If we wanted to actually
just break down the details, I have several metrics
that I want to compare. First, I start with the roof cost, and I have these bubbles here
representing the actual cost relative to each other. If I wanted to then add in
the total electricity cost, so this is $2,000 a year for 30 years.

That's same across no matter
what type of roof you have, I would get a simple sum. This is just adding those
two numbers together, and this would be the
most basic of ways to say, okay if it's below or within this range then you're coming out ahead financially. Then subtract the cost of one PowerWall, and you get essentially the
consumer reports estimate. This is how they calculated the $69,500, and $98,500 for the range of the cost at which you'll be coming
out ahead financially, or at least breaking even. If you want, you can play with this. I'll put it on my website. You can change that to two, and see how much two PowerWalls
would affect your cost. Again, if you're looking at
a 3,000 square foot house, you probably do need more than just one, but just to stay consistent
with their analysis and doing my own comparison,
we'll use one for now.

I'll let you guys decide if
the annual electricity cost of $2,000 is correct, and
if the solar cost of $15,000 is fair as well. All of that considered, I think though you need to take into consideration the roof, the electricity,
plus the cost of solar. If I check that box there, I'll get what my estimate would be minus the cost of a PowerWall
plus the cost of solar, the range that would be acceptable, or at least financially viable for you over the term 30 years to pay
for a new Tesla solar roof. We're looking anywhere
between $84,500, and $113,500. If we wanted to see what
that looked like plotted out, you can see basically the
consumer report's estimate, and then my estimate here, which is that plus the
$15,000 cost of solar. Again, you'll have a
link in the description where you can actually go to my website and play with these numbers, and see what you come up with.

Does it make sense for you. It's the final question in our
journey, and unfortunately, I won't be able to answer it specifically, because first off every
person that watches this could be in a different
country, a different state. The rules change,
depending on where you are. I'm gonna put some resources
down in the description that you can use to try to find that information out for you, but some generalities, some
things we can all think about here whether or not a Tesla
solar roof would make sense. First, do you need a new roof? Do you need or are you going to need a new roof anytime soon? Next, are you going to get solar, or have you been thinking about solar.

Either of those questions
can really push you towards considering the Tesla solar roof as an option. Still between $70,000 and
$100,000 is a pretty big range and still pretty much a luxury item. Again, remember that also
considers the size of your house. Me, as I mentioned, I have
a 1,000 square foot house. Being in a Mediterranean
climate like I live in, I don't need a ton of energy, so the actual cost of the solar roof might be fairly cheap. In fact, Elon even mentioned
that parts of the roof wouldn't all be solar, because sometimes it doesn't make sense. Maybe it's covered by shade
a good chunk of the day, or whatever, so that
would reduce in theory, the cost of the overall installation. They haven't given out details yet. Of course once they do, I'll be back here to tell
you more about it then. I really wanted to thank
you for watching this video. I hope this has helped
you in understanding what could be with this new Tesla product, as well as whether or not
it makes sense for you, and any of the other factors
that you may be considering when switching to a more
sustainable energy platform for you and your family.

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